Box Office Update: Indiana Jones on track for a modest $60 Million debut

With a budget over $250 million, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny is expected to underwhelm with just a $65 million debut.

Numbers have begun rolling in for this weekend and they are keeping in line with what we were predicting on Thursday, for the most part. The big story is Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny coming out and still only projected to hit that $60-$65 million mark (the latest numbers have it pegged at just over $60 million), but the 5-day numbers have softened a bit to an $80-$85 million take through Independence Day. When your last film opened to over $100 million and your budget is nearing $300 million, those numbers just aren’t that good. If the film was seeing better reviews I would say it would stand a better chance week to week, but reviews, although still technically “fresh,” have not been of the “must see now” variety. Paying audiences have liked it enough to give it an 89% audience score, but again, that is not a ringing endorsement in todays marketplace. 

Second and third place belong to Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse and Elemental with what is looking like a $12-$13 million take for Spider-Man and a $10-$11 million take for Elemental. In the comments from our predictions post a few of you pointed out that I was crazy to think Elemental would finish above Spider-Man, and it would seem you were correct! I thought with the good word of mouth, more families would come check out Pixar’s latest. Perhaps those families figured the film would be on Disney+ soon enough and decided to wait. Whatever the case may be, you can not deny the massive behemoth that Spider-Man has become while Elemental sees steady declines due to strong word of mouth.

Speaking of strong word of mouth, the Jennifer Lawrence R rated comedy No Hard Feelings is looking pretty solid in its second week coming in around $8 million, which represents around a 50% decline. With a reported budget of $45 million, this one has the potential to leg out to become a moderate summer success.

Rounding out the top five is Transformers: Rise of the Beasts with an estimated $6.5 million. This one has also been a pretty strong word of mouth success as people make their way back to a franchise that they had largely given up on. Perhaps the big tease at the end of the film has people intrigued.

Falling out of the top five is Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken with what is looking like just a $6 million weekend. Again I ask: Why did they not release this one in February or March when the market desperately needed new animated family fare? 

Have you seen Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny yet? If so, tell us what you thought of it and don’t forget to check back tomorrow when we have a full rundown of this weekend’s box office numbers.