Box Office Predictions: Flight Risk to soar over the competition

Mel Gibson and Mark Wahlberg’s Flight Risk is set to lead the box office this weekend, but only by a slim margin.

This weekend, Mel Gibson’s back with his highest-profile release in years, with his old-school thriller Flight Risk set to hit theaters. Mark Wahlberg, who co-starred with Gibson in Father Stu, plays a maniacal hit man piloting a plane where he intends to waste a government witness against his employers. It’s Wahlberg in a rare villain role, with it looking like a throwback to one of his first big hits, 1996’s Fear.

Given the star power, it’s expected to lead the box office, and I’m predicting about a $14 million finish, making it a rare bright spot for the increasingly beleaguered Lionsgate. However, the chances of it hitting $20 million seem slim. Our review will be up early tomorrow morning, but the early buzz suggests it’s a rock-solid thriller with the propulsive pace Gibson is known for. Who knows? Maybe it’ll be a surprise hit. People sometimes like these old-school thrillers. We certainly do.

Second place could easily go to Mufasa: The Lion King or One of Them Days, with both expected to make around $8 million a piece. Presence may be able to pull in just ahead of Wolf Man with about $7 million, but we’ll see. Either way, expect Wolf Man to lose much of its audience with about a $5 million weekend.

Whatever the case may be, this is shaping up to be a very quiet weekend. The studios are saving their big guns for February, with Captain America: Brave New World the first potential blockbuster of the year. Even still, the well-reviewed horror flick Companion might break out at the box office next weekend, and the animated Dog Man should also do fine.

Here are my predictions:

1. Flight Risk: $14 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King: $8.5 million
3. One of Them Days: $8 million
4. Presence: $7 million
5. Wolf Man: $5 million

What do you think will win the box office crown? Let us know in the comments!